JOHANNESBURG / BENGALURU, Oct. 7 (Reuters) – The shift in global inflation expectations from transient to persistent will save emerging market currencies a massive sell off in the coming months as central banks consider or forecast rate hikes in short-term interest, according to a Reuters poll of strategists found.
As many remain under intense pressure, many emerging market currencies are expected to post a stronger final quarter of 2021 – as they did in previous years – particularly the South African rand, Russian ruble and Thai baht. .
This comes despite the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to slowly scale back its $ 120 billion-per-month bond buying program later this year, already pushing up U.S. bond yields and the dollar in anticipation of an upcoming rate hike at the end of next year.
“Persistent emerging market inflation is forcing a reaction from central banks, and as nominal carry for EMFX increases, real interest rates are struggling to enter positive territory,” noted Jonny Goulden, emerging markets strategist. at JPMorgan.
According to the Reuters poll from October 1-6, the South African rand and the Mexican peso are expected to stabilize around 3% in six months at 14.90 / $ and 20.225 / $ while the Russian ruble will gain more than 2% at 71.52 / $.
The relative stability of other major emerging market currencies, even though the US dollar remains strong, stems from the fact that many central banks have already raised their key rates.
“The macroeconomic fundamentals of emerging markets are generally healthier, especially the ex ante real rate cushion which has been largely replenished following rate hikes in emerging markets over the past six months,” wrote Ian Tomb, emerging markets economist at Goldman Sachs, in a client note.
“Despite a slowdown from China, favorable commodity price winds are still robust for many emerging market exporters. The Fed cut its previous asset purchase program in 2013.
The Chinese yuan was one of the few currencies to end the following quarters strong after this episode. Other emerging market currencies ended subsequent quarterly periods weaker, with the rand suffering a nine-quarter losing streak.
The yuan, heavily managed by Chinese authorities, fell to its lowest level in a month last week.
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Officials are tightening control over the inner workings of China’s foreign exchange market, pressuring banks to trade less and in smaller ranges, as part of a sweeping campaign to curb speculation.
This suggests that other interventions could follow.
“CNY continues to ignore all of this,” said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. “This is more of a political indicator than a macroeconomic or financial indicator: the signal sent is that of a provocative force, rather than reflecting an economy grappling with what looks like a new ideological direction, economic weakness and a energy crisis. “
Other free-floating currencies may well not fall more than they already did this year, by double-digit percentages in some cases.
The Turkish lira, which has plunged 16% this year after falling 20% in 2020, is the first of the five currencies most vulnerable to a sell-off, followed by the Brazilian real, the Indonesian rupiah, the Thai baht and the Philippine peso.
The battered lira is expected to lose nearly 5% to 9,250 / $ in six months. Its central bank has thwarted the global trend by cutting interest rates.
(For other articles from the October Reuters currency poll:)
Reporting by Vuyani Ndaba and Vivek Mishra; Poll by Devayani Sathyan and Md. Manzer Hussain; Editing by Ross Finley, William Maclean
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